The first month of 2016 is finally over. I ended the month exceeding my expectations with 56 species. Top birds were a pair of Snow Geese, a Common Merganser, Ring-Necked Duck, Great Horned Owl, Rusty Blackbird, Eastern Towhee, and Orange-Crowned Warbler. Out of these, the duck and owl were stakeouts, the warbler was refound after not being seen for a while, the geese, blackbird and merganser were reported rarities, and the towhee was self-found. My only 3 misses were Iceland Gull, of which one is almost always hidden in flocks of gulls, Red-Winged Blackbirds, which have been reported at the feeders, and Pine Siskins, which are hard to find, but regular.
Probable (39 species)
Canada Goose (Guaranteed at any water body)
Gadwall (Haven't found in a while, but still a good chance in Central Park)
American Black Duck (will probably see in Central Park)
Mallard (Guaranteed at any water body)
Northern Shoveler (Guaranteed in Central Park)
Bufflehead (Guaranteed in Central Park)
Hooded Merganser (Guaranteed in Central Park)
Ruddy Duck (Guaranteed in Central Park)
Double-Crested Cormorant (Uncommon on Reservoir)
Cooper's Hawk (A few winter each year)
Red-Tailed Hawk (Will get)
American Kestrel (Will likely see or hear)
American Coot (Guaranteed in Central Park)
Ring-Billed Gull (Will get)
Herring Gull (Will get)
Great Black-Backed Gull (Will get)
Rock Pigeon (Will get)
Mourning Dove (Will get)
Red-Bellied Woodpecker (Guaranteed in Central Park)
Yellow-Bellied Sapsucker (Central Park)
Downy Woodpecker (Guaranteed in Central Park)
Northern Flicker (Central Park)
Blue Jay (Will get) Year bird #1!
American Crow (Will probably see somewhere)
Black-Capped Chickadee (Will get)
Tufted Titmouse (Will get)
White-Breasted Nuthatch (Will get)
Brown Creeper (Hard to find, but good chance I will see one)
American Robin (Will get)
European Starling (Will get)
Fox Sparrow (Probably will get in Central Park)
Song Sparrow (Probably will get in Central Park)
White-Throated Sparrow (Will get)
Dark-Eyed Junco (Probably will get in Central Park)
Northern Cardinal (Will get)
Common Grackle (Will get)
House Finch (Guaranteed in Central Park)
American Goldfinch (Guaranteed in Central Park)
House Sparrow (Will get)
Possible (28 species)
Brant (East River, probably will see this year)
Wood Duck (less this year, but still a good chance in Central Park)
Ring-Necked Duck (continuing bird at the Reservoir)
Red-Breasted Merganser (East River or Reservoir)
Pied-Billed Grebe (Reservoir)
Great Blue Heron (Rare winterer)
Sharp-Shinned Hawk (Uncommon winterer)
Red-Shouldered Hawk (Rare winterer, flyover)
Merlin (Rare winterer)
Peregrine Falcon (Resident, but may not find)
Great Horned Owl (Continuing bird at feeders, will likely overwinter)
Other owls (They can show up mid-winter)
Hairy Woodpecker (Uncommon winterer)
Red-Breasted Nuthatch (Rare winterer)
Carolina Wren (Uncommon winterer)
Ruby-Crowned Kinglet (I saw quite a few in December, so some may stick around)
Hermit Thrush (Uncommon winterer)
Gray Catbird (Uncommon winterer)
Northern Mockingbird (May see somewhere)
Brown Thrasher (Rare winterer)
Cedar Waxwing (Uncommon winterer)
Eastern Towhee (Uncommon winterer)
American Tree Sparrow (Rare winterer)
Swamp Sparrow (Uncommon winterer)
Red-Winged Blackbird (Uncommon winterer)
Rusty Blackbird (Rare winterer)
Brown-Headed Cowbird (Uncommon winterer)
Pine Siskin (Uncommon winterer)
Longshots (15+ species)
Mute Swan (Could a wanderer appear?)
American Wigeon (Semi-annual wanderer)
Northern Pintail (Can turn up in winter)
Green-Winged Teal (Occasional winterer)
Greater and Lesser Scaup (Can turn up in winter)
Common Merganser (Not looking like a good year, but still possible)
Common Loon (Reservoir)
Turkey Vulture (Lingering flyover?)
Bald Eagle (Flyover)
'White-Winged' Gull (Annual in county)
Common Raven (Sightings increasing year-round)
Any warblers (With all the warm weather, it's always possible one may stick around)
(UPDATE 1/7: Got Orange-Crowned Warbler)
Winter Wren (Rare winterer)
Chipping Sparrow (Very rare in winter)
Common Redpoll (Another irruption will probably happen this year)
Unexpected Rarities
Snow Goose (Pair at Reservoir)
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